Election Day 2009

Today Japan go to the polls, and all expectations are that some time tonight we will see a new government elected. Could it be that Japan has finally developed a two-party system of government…?

I first came to Japan in 1992, and I was here for the short-lived attempt by Hosokawa to take over the government from the ruling LDP. I then came back in 1996, and watched as Hashimoto, then Obuchi and finally Mori took the Prime Ministership into a spiralling theatre of the absurd, becoming more and more out of touch as the next man in line took over. There was the contraversy over who had actually chosen Mori to be Prime Minister, when an ill Obuchi suffered a stroke, and then died soon after. And then Mori went about making a mokery of himself and his office, with gafs and a series of public relations disasters.

Some amount of stability was found with the emergence of Koizumi. I enjoyed his wit and directness, and the idealism with which he began his first term. But a real turning point for me was when he sacked Tanaka Makiko (I don’t like her much, but if anyone was going to symbolize the crushing of the intrenched beaurocracy it was her), and his idealism seemed to turn to political expediency. He showed once and for all, for me, that if necessary changes were to be made to the Japanese political system, it wasn’t going to happen within the LDP. Change would have to come.

Unfortunately we’ve had to wait another 8 years since Koizumi’s initial rush of blood for another genuine chance for change. And in the meantime, we’ve seen a further three bumbling Prime Ministers, none of whom were ready for the challenge. This time, is change really going to happen? And if so, will it be for the better?

Those are questions that will have to be answered by time. And count me in as one who is far from convinced at this point… I’ve always liked Hatoyama on a personal level, but I have seen him and his party drift further and further to the left, becoming more and more populist in the process, and its still uncertain as to whether he and his party will really have the strength to make hard decisions and difficult changes. Already they have promised a grab-bag of goodies for the voters, from child support to pension reform and greater spending on education, among other things.

Delivering all of this is not going to be easy, especially in such delicate economic times. I am also slightly concerned at the theme that runs through their Manifesto, of taking power from the beaurocrats, and placing it in the hands of the politicians. This is fine as far as it goes. But it stops one step short. There is no talk in this Manifesto about then returning this newfound power to where it really belongs – the people… There is certainly a danger that a new system and new government can get so caught up in the process of re-aligning the political power base of the country that they forget where that power should really reside.

In fact, maybe I’m being a little generous in saying that they may ‘forget’. Since the DPJ have plenty of interest groups themselves to suggest that the misalignment of political power will most likely simply shift from one group to another, resulting in neither the change nor the results that the Japanese people are hoping for…

Personally, I hope that there is a change of government tonight, simply because I believe that there is just far too much danger in having an intrenched government by and for the same group of people for 6 decades. The LDP have had a good run, and now its time for them to regenerate as part of the ‘vocal opposition’. Hopefully the fact that they have been in power for so long will allow them to be better scrutineers of the new government than anyone else. And that could give rise to a true two-party system. I’ll be blogging again later when the results come in, and I’ll be watching closely what happens over the coming weeks and months. After more than 15 years of watching Japanese politics and waiting and hoping for some changes, there may finally be a little light on the horizon for the Japanese political system… perhaps its the rising sun….