Now Comes the Hard Part…

A lot has already been said and written about the difficulties that will be faced by the DPJ in governing. Its only been a week since their big victory, and already the honeymoon is over, long before leader Hatoyama Yukio is even officially installed as Prime Minister. Arguments abound over whether or not the DPJ has enough experience, and whether they will be able to overcome internal divisions and a lack of ideological coherence.

On the issue of experience, I am not particularly worried. I see a team that has been preparing for a decade or more for this opportunity, and there are enough members of the DPJ that have experienced government (from when they were members of the LDP etc), and even former ministers… At the same time, they are not so entrenched in the current system that they will not be able to change the way things are done, and I feel this is one area that a lot of public expecations have focused on.

In terms of the leader Hatoyama, I see a man that is personally likeable, and that should be a convincing and reliable Prime Minister in terms of public image. I don’t see him making some of the rookie mistakes that have dogged the likes of Aso and Abe in the recent past. Having said that, where Hatoyama is going to have most of his problems, and where the DPJ is most likely to come unstuck, is in the lack of a coherent and cohesive vision in their leader – and the percieved lack of power to implement one.

Already certain positions in the cabinet have been filled, with announcements being made about the roles of former leaders Okada, Kan and Ozawa. Ozawa will be Secretary-General in the new cabinet, with Kan taking over as Deputy Prime Minister and head of the National Strategy Bureau, a new organization tasked with ending the dominance of the bureaucracy. Okada will fill the Foreign Minister role. The problem for Hatoyama comes from a stronger Ozawa (he reportedly has 120 lawmakers aligned with him, up from 50 before the election, compared to 45 aligned directly with Hatoyama), and the incohesive nature of the party.

It is an easy matter for a rag-tag group of disparate lawmakers to rally around a common goal of changing the government. It is another thing entirely for members that range in ideology from conservatives to American-style liberals, and even socialists, to rally together around tax policy, welfare reform, or other government programs.

Some quick research which I did today illustrates this problem somewhat. There are at least 6 major factions existing within the DPJ, ranging from the Isshin-kai, led by Ozawa, to the liberal leaning faction of Kan, and the more conservative factions led by Hatoyama and Maehara. It is similarly illustrative to note that the current DPJ has, by its nature and history, been a party of convenience, as well as a party of protest against the government, as smaller parties have merged with a view to taking power. The current DPJ includes mambers from the old Democratic Party of Japan, the Good Governance Party (Minseito), the New Fraternity Party (Shinto-Yuai), the Democratic Reform Party (Minshu Kaikaku Rengo), the Liberal Party, the Liberal Democratic Party, The Sakigake Party, the Democratic Socialist Party, the Japan Socialist Party, and others…. Thats a list of 9 parties, with disparate platforms, and its by no means a complete list…..

It really is difficult to pin down the DPJ philosophy, because of the fact that its members are from such different backgrounds. They claim to represent both market capitalism and strong public welfare systems, and claim strong ties with the US as well as a more passive approach to foreign policy. Just how these conflicts will be resolved within the party, and what kinds of policies will ultimately emerge will be interesting to watch. There is a big difference between filling a manifesto with populist rhetoric to win an election, and actually setting about to implement laws.

Update: Mutant Frog has a great graphical history of the DPJ, adapted from Nikkei Shinbun. It includes at least 16 or 17 different parties, which have merged into the DPJ which will take power…