Tanigaki Chosen as New Leader of Old LDP

If the LDP were looking to re-invigorate themselves, and show that they had learned something from the recent thrashing, you wouldn’t know it. The vastly depleted party today chose 64 year old Tanigaki Sadakazu, a 26 year veteran of parliament, as their new leader. Tanigaki was formerly Finance Minister in the Koizumi administration, serving in that capacity for three years from 2003 to 2006. The supposed mandate would be to renew the party and take back power – starting with taking back the upper house which currently sees the ruling DPJ with a slim majority by virtue of its coalitions. But selecting an old face, who was supported by the traditional power players of the party is not exactly a great start on this road… Tanigaki eventually won the LDP leadership ballot by 156 votes over Kono (Tanigaki: 120 parliamentarians, 180 regional votes: 300 votes; Kono: 35 parliamentarians, 109 regional votes: 144 votes; Nishimura: 43 parliamentarians, 11 regional votes: 54 votes)

In terms of policy, there is likely very little to separate Tanigaki from the last few LDP leaders before him. If anything, he may even be slightly more fiscally conservative, and on policy alone I don’t have such a problem with him. But the LDP really had an opportunity here to make a statement, and to show that they were listening to the public – even if only symbolically. The election of either Nishimura Yasutoshi or the well known and popular Kono Taro could have been just the kind of symbolic move that could convince the public that this was a new and improved LDP.

As it stands, there is certainly room to argue that the massive landslide victory for the DPJ in last month’s polls was as much due to the LDP losing support as anything else. People are still a little uncertain about the ability of the DPJ to govern, but the LDP had made such a mess of things that they simply couldn’t be returned to govern any more. As a visible member of this ‘old guard’, it is hard to see how Tanigaki turns this image around quickly.

As I’ve argued elsewhere, I still believe that the LDP’s best chance of taking back power in the lower house in the next cycle or two is for it to continue to stand as the conservative alternative, and watch as the DPJ over-reach and tax and spend too much, failing to re-ignite the economy. Of course, if the DPJ fail to do this, the LDP will really struggle… But in order for the LDP to be able to catch any of the returning voters who may flee an over-reaching Hatoyama administration, there will have to be something for the voters to vote for. And simply more of the same will not cut it…

Since I’ve lived in Japan, over a period of about 15 years, I’ve seen no fewer than 11 Prime Ministers come and go. In this same period, there have been three presidents in the US, three Prime Ministers in the UK, and three Prime Ministers in Australia. I have a feeling that Hatoyama will last for most if not all of his first term, but the LDP have a tendency to reshuffle every week or so….. Tanigaki would best remember this. He will need to impress quickly as the leader of the opposition, by offering a seasoned and reasoned voice against the more obscure or contraversial government policies. He may be capable of doing this, but whether or not the public will warm to him is a matter that remains to be seen…

 
Sources:
21 LDP chapters back Tanigaki for top post
自民党、新総裁に谷垣氏を選出　議員・地方票とも６割

Profile of Tanigaki Sadakazu:

JPN: Official HP

ENG: Wiki: Tanigaki Sadakazu

ENG: Old Finance Ministry Profile