Japanese Population Falls Estimated 75,000 in 2009

Written By: guyjin on January 1, 2010 No Comment

According to government estimates, the population of Japan fell by approximately 75,000 in 2009, based on births and deaths registered in Japan between January and October. During 2009, there was a decrease in births, down 22,000 to 1,069,000 and an increase in deaths, up 2,000 to 1,144,000 compared with 2008. These both continued trends from previous years, although the population decline in 2009 was some 1.46 times higher than that in 2008. Curiously however, there is no mention made of immigrants, or naturalized citizens, and what effect, if any, their numbers have on the population…

Of the 1,144,000 deaths, 644,000 of them were due to cancer (344,000), heart disease (179,000) or strokes (121,000).

These figures also show the continued trends of an aging society, with a low birth rate. The number of births in 2008 will likely be the second lowest in more than 60 years, although the number of children born per woman is likely to remain around 1.37, the same as it was in 2008. The problem for Japan however is that due to its aging population the number of women of childbearing age are also on the decline. With the aging trend likely to continue for the foreseeable future, and the number of deaths still outstripping births, it is difficult to see major increases in Japan’s population in the near future.

According to the 2006 UN total fertility rate, Japan has one of the dozen or so lowest fertility rates of the 195 countries that are measured. Some other Asian countries such as Singapore, South Korea and Hong Kong are even lower on this list. Japan’s death rate of about 9 per 1,000 persons was 84th according UN figures for 2005-2010. The world average death rate is 8.6/1,000, and countries such as the US, Australia, France, and India, as well as many Asian countries such as China, Taiwan, Hong Kong, South Korea, Singapore and Malaysia all have lower death rates than Japan.

Marriages were also down in Japan for 2009, by about 1.6%, to 714,000, while divorces rose 0.7% to 253,000. Therefore the burden to increase the population will fall on a smaller number of families in Japan.

The government has been talking for many years about the need to encourage families to have children, but so far their policies have fallen short. For a nation that is constantly drawing on debt to finance a budget that is heavy on welfare programs, these trends are particularly worrying.